Analysis of Financial Time Series by Ruey S. Tsay PDF

By Ruey S. Tsay

ISBN-10: 0471746185

ISBN-13: 9780471746188

Offers statistical instruments and strategies had to comprehend today's monetary markets

The moment variation of this significantly acclaimed textual content presents a accomplished and systematic creation to monetary econometric versions and their purposes in modeling and predicting monetary time sequence facts. This most recent version keeps to stress empirical monetary facts and specializes in real-world examples. Following this method, readers will grasp key features of economic time sequence, together with volatility modeling, neural community functions, marketplace microstructure and high-frequency monetary info, continuous-time types and Ito's Lemma, price in danger, a number of returns research, monetary issue types, and econometric modeling through computation-intensive methods.

The writer starts off with the elemental features of monetary time sequence information, environment the basis for the 3 major topics:

research and alertness of univariate monetary time series
go back sequence of a number of assets
Bayesian inference in finance methods

This re-creation is a completely revised and up-to-date textual content, together with the addition of S-Plus® instructions and illustrations. workouts were completely up to date and improved and comprise the most up-tp-date facts, offering readers with extra possibilities to place the versions and techniques into perform. one of the new fabric additional to the textual content, readers will find:

constant covariance estimation less than heteroscedasticity and serial correlation
replacement ways to volatility modeling
monetary issue models
State-space models
Kalman filtering
Estimation of stochastic diffusion models

The instruments supplied during this textual content relief readers in constructing a deeper figuring out of economic markets via firsthand adventure in operating with monetary information. this can be a great textbook for MBA scholars in addition to a reference for researchers and pros in enterprise and finance.

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Additional resources for Analysis of Financial Time Series

Example text

This assumption makes statistical properties of asset returns tractable. But it encounters several difficulties. First, the lower bound of a simple return is −1. Yet the normal distribution may assume any value in the real line and, hence, has no lower bound. Second, if Rit is normally distributed, then the multiperiod simple return Rit [k] is not normally distributed because it is a product of one-period returns. Third, the normality assumption is not supported by many empirical asset returns, which tend to have a positive excess kurtosis.

Here L stands for lag operator. For instance, Lrt = rt−1 and Lψk = ψk−1 . Corresponding to the prior difference equation, there is a second-order polynomial equation 1 − φ1 x − φ2 x 2 = 0. 14) Solutions of this equation are x= φ1 ± φ12 + 4φ2 −2φ2 . In the time series literature, inverses of the two solutions are referred to as the characteristic roots of the AR(2) model. Denote the two solutions by ω1 and ω2 . If both ωi are real valued, then the second-order difference equation of the model 37 SIMPLE AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS can be factored as (1 − ω1 B)(1 − ω2 B) and the AR(2) model can be regarded as an AR(1) model operating on top of another AR(1) model.

In application, volatility plays an important role in pricing options and risk management. By extremes of a return series, we mean the large positive or negative returns. 2 shows that the minimum and maximum of a return series can be substantial. The negative extreme returns are important in risk management, whereas positive extreme returns are critical to holding a short position. We study properties and applications of extreme returns, such as the frequency of occurrence, the size of an extreme, and the impacts of economic variables on the extremes, in Chapter 7.

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Analysis of Financial Time Series by Ruey S. Tsay

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